Authors:

Poulton, E.C.

Reference:

Year of publication:

1994

CBU number:

2850

Abstract:

Most ordinary people know little or nothing about probability theory and statistics. Their estimates of probability are likely to be biased in a number of predictable ways that are described by Tversky and Kahneman and their colleagues: Apparent overconfidence, Hindsight bias, the Small sample fallacy, Conjunction fallacy, Regression fallacy, Baserate fallacy, Availability and simulation fallacies, Anchoring and adjustment bias, Expected utility fallacy, and Bias by frames. The investigators themselves may also introduce biases without realising it: the Response contraction bias or Regression effect, the sequential contraction bias, Stimulus range equalizing bias, Equal frequency bias, and Transfer bias. Reviews of the literature characteristically accept the results of the investigations at their face value, without attempting to uncover and describe the biases that are introduced by the investigators. This book treats both kinds of bias, covering both theory and practice. The book is written primarily for the uninitiated reader who is not familiar with behavioural decision theory.